Reference
Event propensity¶
Event propensity is a predictive model that finds the likelihood that a customer performs a target event within the next 30 days.
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Event propensity determines the likelihood that a customer will perform a target event within the next 30 days.
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Use cases¶
The event propensity model enables support for marketing campaigns that benefit from knowing a customer’s likelihood to perform a target event, including:
Recommended audience sizes¶
A recommended audience is a feature of event propensity modeling that answers the following question: “Which audience size best captures the customers who are most likely to perform the target event over the next 30 days?” Event propensity modeling answers this question with small, medium, and large recommended audience sizes.
Recommended audience sizes are calculated for a 30-day window. An event curve is generated, along with corresponding audience sizes that show what size audience is required to capture 50%, 70%, and 90% of occurrences of a given target event during the previous 30 days.
Audience sizes are inclusive of all smaller audience sizes.
A medium audience size (70%) includes all of your customers who are in the small audience size (50%).
A large audience size (90%) includes all of your customers who are in the small and medium audiences.
Recommended audience sizes for event propensity modeling identify customers who are most likely to perform a target event. Use recommended audience sizes to find customers who are likely to:
Join your brand’s loyalty program
Sign up for your brand’s credit card
Make a repeat booking for a car rental, airline ticket, or hotel stay
Attributes for recommended audience sizes are available from the Event Propensity table:
Attribute Name |
Description |
|---|---|
Audience Size Small |
A small audience is predicted to include ~50% of customers who are likely to perform a target event. |
Audience Size Medium |
A medium audience is predicted to include ~70% of customers who are likely to perform a target event |
Audience Size Large |
A large audience is predicted to include ~90% of customers who are likely to perform a target event |
Combine these attributes with the Target Event attribute to build audiences for a specific target event. You can access these attributes directly from the segment editor.
Customer ranking¶
Use customer ranking to define an audience using the top N customers. Use customer ranking as an alternate to recommended audience sizes when an audience is too large (or small) or if a recommended audience size is unavailable for a specific event.
The Ranking attribute in the Event Propensity table ranks customer scores by event. A rank that is less than or equal to X provides the top N customers with a propensity for this event. Combine this attribute with the Target Event attribute to build customer rankings for a specific target event. You can access this attribute directly from the segment editor.